机器人革命威胁中国经济根本|亚博直播官网

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亚博直播-Over the last decade,China has become,in the eyes of much of the world,a jo b-eating monster,Consuming entire industries witter全世界很多地方在过去10年里,中国已经出现了风化工作机会的恶魔,但现实是,中国目前正在将自己的就业市场需求转变为机器人。这一变化将对中国和世界经济产生根本性影响。In 2014是Chinese factories accounted for about a quarter of the global ranks of industrial robots-a54 percent increase over 2013。

according to the ii Onal Federation of Robotics,it will have more installed manufacturing robots than any other country by 2017 . 2014年,中国工厂的机器人Midea,a leading manufacturer of home appliances in the heavily industrialize d province of Guangdong,plans to replace 6,000 workers在高度产业化的广东,著名家电制造商美计划在今年年底前用自动化代替6000名家用空调部门职员。这大约是全体职员人数的五分之一。苹果(Apple)和其他公司生产消费电子产品的富士康(Foxconn)计划在3年内自动实现工厂里约70%的自动化。

此外,该公司在位于成都的一家工厂已经建造了所有机器人运营商。Chinese factory jobs may thus be poised to evaporate at an even faster pace than has been the case in the United States and other developed countries .that may make it significantly more difficult for China to address one of its paramount economic challenges : the need to rebalance its economy so因此,中国工厂的工作岗位消失的速度可能会比美国和其他发达国家慢。这可能会大大增加中国应对主要经济挑战之一的再生可能性。

这一挑战是,中国只有建立经济的再运行平衡,国内消费才能起到比现在更大的作用。China ‘ s economic growth has been driven not just by manufacturing exports,but also by fixed investment in things like housing,Factories中国经济快速增长的动力不仅仅是制造业出口,事实上,近年来投资国内生产总值的比例已经接近一半。

另一方面,国内消费支出只占中国经济这块蛋糕的三分之一左右,大约相当于美国的一半。this is clearly unsustainable . aft亚博直播er all,There eventually has to be a return on all those investments . factories have to produce goods that are pare这似乎是不可持续的。
但是所有这些投资最终都要得到报酬。工厂应该生产可以销售和盈利的商品。

房子要住人,房租要谁交。构建这样的薪酬拒绝中国家庭出来扮演更大的角色。

他们需要大大增加开支。不仅要销售中国工厂生产的商品,还要在服务业消费更多。

making that happen will be an extraor dinary challenge . indeed,the Chinese leadership has been talking about it for years,But virtually no构建这将是一个艰巨的任务。事实上,中国领导层已经争论多年,但毫无进展。一个问题是,尽管最近工资上涨,但与中国的经济规模相比,普通中国家庭的收益太少。another problem is that The Chinese public has an extraor dinary propensity to save . by some estimates,The average house hold socks away as much athat may be partly driven by the need to provide for retirement and self-id Against risks like unemployment and illness,as China ‘s newly另一个问题部分估计,普通家庭存款占其收益的40%。

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这可能是因为要考虑抵制卸任、失业和疾病等危险性的自保。因为中国的新组成资本主义经济大大巩固了社会保障体系。the bottom line is that any policy designed to rebalance economic growth will have to raise house hold in comes while dampening down the saving rate.t would be a daunting challenge under any circumstances,but accelerating technology is virtually certain to make it far more difficult。

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核心是,在任何情况下,这都是一个艰巨的挑战,但技术的变化一定不会大大增加它的再生可能性。the traditional path followed by developed countries has been to first raise in comes And build a solid middle class on the basis of manufacturing发达国家采用的传统方法是增加收入,以制造业为基础建设稳定的中产阶级,然后向服务型经济转变。美国,以及后来的日本和韩国等国家,在技术没有像现在这样繁荣的时候,已经完成了这个过程,这是幸运的。(威廉莎士比亚、温斯顿、幸运)中国在机器人时代正在展开类似的过渡期。

automation has already had a substantial impact on Chinese factory employment : between 1995 and 2002 about 16 million factory jobs disappeared自动化已经对中国工厂的低收入工作岗位产生了很大的影响。从1995年到2002年,这种趋势将进一步加快。that might not be a problem if the Chinese economy were gene rating plenty of higher-skill jobs for more educated workers . the solution;would simply be to offer more training and education to displaced blue-collar workers那么,解决方案只不过是对被替代的蓝领工人接受更多的培训和教育而已。

The reality,however,is that China has struggled to create enough white-collar jobs for its soaring population of college graduates The cheAccording to one analysis,fully 43 percent of Chinese workers already consider them selves to be over educated for their current positions . as software automation and artificial intelligence increasingly affect knowledge-based occupations,especially It may welligence一项分析显示,43%的中国员工认为,软件自动化和人工智能对以科学知识为基础的工作岗位,特别是入门岗位产生更大的影响,中国经济将无法吸引期待技术提高的员工。what policies might help China succeed in making the transition to a consumer economy even as the robotic revolution unfolds?Strengthening the healthcare,retirement and unemployment insurance systems,so that workers feel more secure,might help lower the霍华德,It Seems Likely that the Chinese government will ultimately need to resort to direct income supplement ation in some form-perhaps through但是中国政府最终可能需要补充某种形式的必要收益。可能是通过类似美国“劳动所得税减免”的项目建设的。尽管如此,长时间看可能不会有效果。

因为技术的迅速发展使更多的职员落后。(威廉莎士比亚,温斯顿,科学)中国could well turn out to be ground zero for the economic and social disruption brought on by the rise of the robots . the couund中国很有可能在机器人受伤造成的经济和社会破坏中成为中心。中国的威权主义政治制度比较薄弱,依赖持续经济快速增长,其快速经济增长水平在任何发达国家显然都不寻常。

这两点指出,中国在试图适应环境新时代的现实时,有可能面临巨大的挑战。_亚博直播。

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